Bitcoin study

Bitcoin study:

Gov's cut at the moment is 0%
The house's cut is apparently at most 0.25% per trade. I haven't researched enough but the wallet I use has a max of 0.25% and gets to 0.10% for a lot of volume.
In poker the house's cut is 5% per trade. Therefore in poker there has to be a massive edge for you against the fish in order for the biz to be profitable. Playing a weaker professional is not enough, the skill edge is not enough to beat the house's cut(rake)



Let's compare this with real estate investing and stocks trading.
Can you do real estate investing? You need to have a lot of $ to do that.
Can you do stocks trading? Again, you need to have a lot of $ to do that.
If you have made a lot of $ and haven't spent all of it on hookers, booze, drugs and gambling -> chances are you are not stupid enough to qualify as a trading stocks or real estate fish.
So where/who is the fish?!

The house's cut and the gov's cut are also higher.
I could see the fish in real estate being the person who urgently has to sell a property because he desperately needs the money.
Also, the current system where agents exist protects the fish a little bit because if he goes full retard in selling low the agent can call him out on it.

As a conclusion, simplifying things, I believe currently in real estate and stocks trading my edge vs the field would not be close to enough to beat the house's cut and the gov's cut.
I just cannot identify who the fish is -> therefore it is likely me.

Bitcoin is different.
Any moron that you ask has heard about it and probably has played with it for a bit. You don't need that much $ to buy.
There seems to be a lot of fish. When a large number of people are involved, most of them have to be really dumb, the world simply has dumb people as the majority.
It's very possible for a moron at a casino to gamble some $ on the roulette and buy some BTC at a random price right there while also betting on McGregor to beat 49-0 Mayweather because a fellow gambler just said it's a cool thing to do.
It's not really possible for that person to buy stocks or real estate like that.
The fact that McGregor ended up having a perceived chance of winning of 25% in the eyes of the average bettor is a solid indication of how many complete idiots(the fish) are involved in this type of market similar to the bitcoin market.
(taking into account that Mayweather could be sick, have a diarrhea and 2 broken hands, he still had more than 95% chance to win).

I see two potential strategies here:
1. the most common is  "Buy, hold & pray" - you've heard from a smart friend who heard from another smart friend that heard from somewhere that bitcoin will go up a lot in the future.
So you buy, sit your ass on it and pray that they are right.
Maybe this small edge is good enough to beat the field.
But maybe you got on it too late, the original info was good enough back then but now it's too close to the bubble bursting.
It's also possible that the (US) gov can get involved against it as they tend to be in such matters. They just shut down btc-e, one of the top unregulated exchanges, though the price still continued to go up.

2. the second strategy is trying to do a lot of trading back and forth. Identify local highs and lows.
Keep the funds in USD/EUR at all times(to be protected from the bubble bursting and catching you with all funds in BTC for a massive loss) and identify spots to buy BTC low and sell high really soon/in the next few hours.
The challenge is identifying those spots, it's also not really passive income anymore as strategy #1 is. It now requires maintenance but a lot of automation here should be possible.
How many people can identify those spots though? Probably very few.
I think that here there is potential for a massive edge against the population of BTC users. 
I also think that short term rises in price can be predicted based on how the price moves at different exchanges and having programming knowledge should be a massive edge.
I will put some study into this.